The State of Documentary Film - Episode IV. The Changing Streaming Market
What the Changing Streaming Market Means for Nonfiction Filmmaking
Welcome to this week’s Wednesday Edition of The Backlot. These mid-week newsletters are reserved for deep dives of the latest filmmaking news, interviews with filmmakers, and episodic series on major issues affecting the industry.
NOTE - The mid-week version of this newsletter, including the Documentary Film series, is for paid subscribers. All Sunday Evening posts are free.
THERE WILL BE NO SUNDAY POST THIS WEEKEND. The Backlot will return next week with the Wednesday edition of the newsletter
This week, we’re continuing our series on the Documentary Film Industry and getting to know the streaming landscape a bit more…
🎞️ The Streamers - The Market
🎬 Looking Ahead to the Next Edition
🎬 News from the Industry
Catch up with the previous episode first…
A Quick Recap
In the last episode, we gained a surface-level understanding of the streaming landscape and how streaming is affecting the documentary film market.
We looked at the ways the rise of streaming grew documentary film and led to new expectations, processes, and audiences for nonfiction filmmaking. We also discussed the lack of buyer parity that has become more apparent over the last couple of years as the streaming landscape has started to change.
In this episode, we will discuss the current state of the streaming market and how this can play a role in the future of nonfiction filmmaking.
The Consolidation of Streaming
Lately, the streaming landscape seems to be reeling from many of the issues plaguing much of the entertainment industry. This has led to the consolidation of a number of streaming platforms, which are either combining forces such as the Discovery and Warner Bros merger or, in the case of packaging, combining streaming services in new bundles such as the recently announced Comcast bundle.
These efforts have been in response to the inability to keep subscribers, which has led to only three platforms—Netflix, Hulu, and, most recently, Warner Bros. Discovery—turning a profit in 17 years of streaming.
According to Quartz Magazine, in 2023, the streamers recorded 167.4 million new subscriptions while losing 143 million to cancellations in the same timeframe. This resulted in a net gain of only 24 million subscribers across the market.
Many have indicated that the industry's slowing subscription growth is being caused by the rising prices of subscription platforms. In 2023, Netflix, Hulu, and Max’s premium plans were all above $15 a month, and prices have continued to increase year after year.
These price hikes have been part of the streamer’s strategy to move towards more average revenue per subscriber models, which have helped companies such as Disney turn a profit from their streaming divisions.
Another response to the criticisms of high prices has led to the introduction of newer ad-based packages that feature commercials, which users could purchase at a lower price. More and more streamers are turning to this model as they attempt to secure a stable future for their platforms.
In addition, the introduction of bundles has been another tactic to combat this plateauing of subscriptions. The Comcast bundle, which will include Peacock, Apple TV+, and Netflix, highlights how the market is turning its focus away from simple subscriber numbers and toward new ideas to eliminate this cancellation of subscriptions, or “churn” in their subscriber base.
So, what does this all possibly mean for documentary films?
Sink or Swim
With falling subscription numbers, a plateauing market, and question marks over the future of streaming, concern for the future of filmmaking can be felt across the industry.
In documentary filmmaking, this has translated into two possibilities, which we’ve seen manifest in different ways.
On one end, the loss of subscribers and changing landscape of the industry has led to buyers and distributors taking less “risk” on documentary films, opting to produce and distribute films that are more likely to find an audience.
These documentaries that have a guaranteed audience include true crime, celebrity-focused stories, and sports documentaries.
Unfortunately, the focus on these genres has made it harder for other more socially progressive, controversial, or artistically unique films to find an audience. This is one reason why the loss of Participant Media, which was known for supporting socially forward and unique stories, was a major blow to the industry.
The other notable aspect of this transition to ad-supported streaming is the changing demands of streamers, who will now look for content that ensures more viewing hours and higher revenue per viewer.
In their recent Upfront Presentation, Netflix noted that their ads-based plan accounted for 40 percent of all new subscriptions and now has 40 million subscribers worldwide. As the company moves forward, they’ve indicated a greater desire to use this ad-based model to expand their capabilities.
“There’s a lot to be excited about over the next year. But the story of ads on Netflix this year is pretty simple: It’s about growth and momentum,” stated Peter Naylor, Vice President of advertising sales for Netflix.
These major streamers' reliance on ad-based subscription models means streaming platforms will need to rely more on audience favorites. Advertising also comes with more restrictions, demands to meet, and stakeholders involved in the process.
Unfortunately, the need to please stakeholders and advertisers will factor into the decision-making process of which films these platforms produce and distribute, which is not exactly the greatest recipe for socially forward and progressive nonfiction filmmaking.
Where’s the Hope
Interestingly, this is a double-sided sword because the hope for a documentary does slightly depend on the success of ad-based platforms.
With ad-based platforms for companies such as Netflix, Disney, and Warner Bros succeeding, we may see the documentary budgets from the golden age come back, allowing for more films to be commissioned and bought by these companies.
It may also lead to the success of other platforms, such as XTR’s Documentary Plus, which is entirely ad-supported. These newer platforms have been a response to the declining documentary market, providing a space for nonfiction filmmakers to distribute their docs and cultivate a larger audience.
The potential return of ad-based business models opens up new avenues for documentary distribution, but it still doesn’t seem like the answer.
Truthfully, I think the streaming landscape is only becoming more of a reason to move toward a newer model for the entire industry. Instead of relying on the demands of these streamers, the future of documentary film may be found in newer and more innovative models of distribution and production.
And to find that, we’re going to have to start thinking outside the box.
On the Next Edition
In the next edition of the series, we will begin to examine some of the unique solutions being developed in the documentary film industry.
This episode will lead us into the more solutions-based second half of this series, where we explore various ideas, platforms, and efforts to secure a better future for documentary filmmaking.
In next week’s mid-week newsletter, we will discuss the changing landscape of several major film festivals, including the Sundance Film Festival, Slamdance, and Hot Docs.
Mid Week Updates
This week’s updates from the world of filmmaking…
Megalopolis, Francis Ford Coppola’s science fiction epic, received incredibly mixed reviews after its premiere at Cannes. Many called it incompetent, lacking any sense of coherence, and utterly awful. It’s easily been one of the most divisive films of the festival.
Mikey Madison’s performance in Sean Baker’s Anora is being called a “star-making” performance and giving her acclaim as an early contender for Best Actress. The drama film follows a sex worker who falls in love with a Russian oligarch.
The Hollywood Reporter indicates that 14 percent of Pixar’s employees will be laid off as part of Disney’s restructuring and cost-cutting process. Roughly 175 out of the animation’s studios 1300 employees will be let go.
Multiple reports indicate Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons will star in Yorgos Lanthimos’ upcoming film Bugonia. The film follows two conspiracy theorists who kidnap a high-powered CEO. These reports come as Plemons and Stone are promoting Kinds of Kindness, their latest collaboration with Lanthimos, which premiered at Cannes.
As Cannes continues, the standing ovation has become a notable metric of a film’s reception, often providing a first look at the critical response to the project. As of this moment, The Substance, starring Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley, has received the longest ovation at 13 minutes, according to Deadline.
Roger Corman, the acclaimed film producer and director known for genre films such as Little Shop of Horrors and The Raven, has passed away at 98. Corman was widely known for helping start the careers of the likes of Martin Scorcese, Ron Howard, and Francis Ford Coppola.
NO POST ON SUNDAY…The Backlot is taking the weekend off for the holiday. We will be back next Wednesday. Enjoy your weekend!
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