Welcome to this week’s Sunday Evening edition of The Backlot. These versions of the newsletters will include stories from my recent experiences working in indie filmmaking, helpful resources for emerging filmmakers, and other posts covering topics in the film industry.
NOTE - The mid-week version of the newsletter will be free for the next few weeks before moving to a paid subscription in May. The Sunday version of this newsletter will remain free.
Here are our topics this week…
🎞️ Are Mid-Budget Films Back
🎬 The Power of Horror in 2024
🗞️ Three Movie Recommendations
Are Mid-Budget Films Back?
Every year, the first weekend of May is considered the big kickoff for the summer film season and is usually tentpoled by a major release.
For the past ten years, that’s usually been a superhero movie with a major budget, including last year’s release of Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol 3. This year, The Fall Guy, the new Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt action comedy from David Leitch, releases on Friday.
The film will kick off the summer movie-going season, during which some big-budget films will have their chance at box-office success.
Thus far into the year, there haven’t been many big-budget films; in fact, it’s been a year more dedicated to lower-budget and mid-budget films. In fact, there have only been a few big-budget films and one mega-budget film, Denis Villeneuve's Dune Part Two.
The rest of the films have been mainly mid-budget films, and they have been having a lot of success.
I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately and noticed some others online talking about the potential return of the mid-budget film in theaters. So, let’s look a little deeper, are mid-budget films back?
What Is Mid-Budget?
There are varying numbers on what constitutes a mid-budget film, but StudioBinder states it’s anything with a budget between $5 and $75 million. Other industry analysts would say somewhere between $15 and $60 million.
Notable examples of these films include Sleepless in Seattle, Good Will Hunting, The Insider, Pineapple Express, and Boogie Nights.
These were films about different genres, driven by emerging filmmakers, and willing to take on different topics and issues. They also included comedies, romantic dramas, crime thrillers, and many more.
Why Did They Disappear?
Starting in the 2010s, studios began putting fewer smaller projects in theaters and focusing on pouring money into mega-budget films such as comic-book movies or action franchises. They started pouring all their funds into these pre-sold franchises with an established audience, such as The Avengers, The Hunger Games, and Fast & The Furious.
Along with the focus on these franchises, production budgets ballooned because these IP franchises require extensive CGI, special effects budgets, and marketing campaigns.
In fact, the ten films with the largest production budgets of all time were all released in the past ten years, with only the third and fourth Pirates of the Caribbean films as outliers. Only one film in the top 100 was released before 2004, and that is Titanic.
These exploding production budgets coincided with the success of a lot of these films. Films such as Endgame, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens were massive successes at the box office.
Therefore, the studios were pouring money into these films because they were making money in return.
This led to less emphasis and resources allocated to smaller, mid-budget films. We started seeing fewer comedies and action dramas in theaters. Courtroom dramas, erotic thrillers, and feature debuts all seemed to disappear. Everything seemed to be directed towards the two extremes: massive budget IP franchise or arthouse Oscar bait.
That was until the past year when something started to shift in audiences’ expectations and the success of these mega-budget films.
Is The Tide Changing in 2024?
Through four months of this year, there is some growing optimism that the studios are realizing the benefits of releasing a riskier mid-budget film instead of opting for a large-budget pre-sold IP franchise.
This started last year, as many of the major franchises started flopping, most notably the Marvel and DC franchises. Last year, there were 13 films with budgets over $200 million, and only one actually turned a profit - Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol.3.
Several films were catastrophic flops, including Ant-Man: Quantamania, The Flash, Indiana Jones and The Dial of Destiny, and The Marvels.
The losses incurred by these films seem to represent a growing desire among audiences for newer and more original content that doesn't require extensive knowledge of the film’s universe.
This also has to do with the changing landscape of theaters, as they are still struggling to get back to pre-pandemic levels. We’re seeing audiences that are more likely to wait for a film on demand than see it in theaters, especially when films are released on VOD within a month of their theatrical release.
Now, combine the changing landscape and downfall of IP with the success of some mid-budget films, and there is a reason for optimism.
This year, we’ve seen a few mid-budget films turn a substantial profit in theaters, including Civil War, The Beekeeper, Night Swim, Monkey Man, and Bob Marley: One Love. Now, there is a lot of nuance to the idea of turning a profit, especially with several of these films going to streaming, but the turnout at the box office is a positive sign.
As studios start to turn away from these major IP franchises, they may start to shift back towards releasing more of these types of mid-budget films.
What This Means For Emerging Filmmakers
There is a reason this is important to filmmakers. That’s because mid-budget films are more likely to be projects that have first-time feature debuts, driven by underrepresented filmmakers, and focused on innovative concepts.
For example, Dev Patel’s Monkey Man is a bloody action film about an Indian man who is bent on avenging his mother’s death. The film is Patel's feature debut, and he has been outspoken about his efforts to bring these types of stories to Hollywood. It’s also a film that highlights India in a rare lens not often seen in Western cinema, sharing unique perspectives on the country’s history, political climate, and culture.
Another good example of mid-budget filmmaking is A24’s Oscar-winning Everything Everywhere All At Once. There are times when it seems insane that this film got greenlit in the current climate. The wacky science-fiction film about an immigrant family centered around a mother-daughter relationship is definitely different from standard films, but it was a massive success and completely swept the Awards race.
These films are important because they advance the cultural narrative and share unique perspectives from filmmakers of different demographics.
This also means we may see more comedies or romance dramas, something we’ve severely lacking in theaters in the past few years. Although they may not share the same cultural importance as others, these films are relevant to a certain demographic of audiences who have felt left out of the theatrical conversation in the past.
Films such as Anyone But You, No Hard Feelings, and even Barbie highlighted a demographic of people willing to pay to see films about romance, comedy, or women-centered narratives.
These films can open more doors for emerging filmmakers and different genres to bring fresh perspectives to the silver screen. This is the exact point of filmmaking, to drive the cultural conversation, what much of this industry has been missing over the past few years.
Through four months this year, it appears that there may be change on the horizon and that the future of film may once again include the mid-budget movie.
While writing this, I was often reminded of this recent quote from Cord Jefferson during his Oscars speech, which sums up the ideas pretty well.
“It’s a plea to acknowledge and recognize that there are so many people out there who want the opportunity that I was given. The next Martin Scorsese is out there. The next Greta [Gerwig] is out there. The next Christopher Nolan is out there. They just want a shot. And we can give them one.”
A Note on The Power of Horror
Now, there is one caveat to the idea of films with mid-tier budgets getting greenlit and finding an audience - and that is horror.
Horror is known as one of the sturdiest genres for filmmakers because there is almost a guaranteed audience that is willing to shelve out the money to go to the theaters and see the film.
A lot of this has to do with the experience of watching a horror film and seeing a jump scare in theaters with a bunch of people. Because horror is more like a theme park ride, it’s meant to cause actual physical reactions and frights, something that’s truly just more fun with others around.
Over the past few years, though, horror seems to be reaching new heights. Last year, we saw massive successes with a few lower-budget and mid-budget horror films. Talk To Me, the breakout Sundance hit from the Phillippou brothers, grossed $92 million worldwide against a $4 million budget. The film was only outdone a few months later by Five Nights At Freddy’s, which grossed $297 million against a $20 million budget.
This year, films such as Immaculate, Night Swim, Late Night with the Devil, Imaginary, The First Omen, and Abigail have found some success in theaters but are nowhere near the heights of previous years.
Only Night Swim and Late Night with the Devil appear to have gone well beyond the break-even mark, which is often considered twice the film’s reported budget.
The rest of the films have failed to find any truly commercial success, with even Immaculate, powered by Sydney Sweeney’s skyrocketing stardom, barely making enough to break even.
Now, it’s only been a few months, and there are plenty of films on the slate, including Cuckoo, The Watchers, Longlegs, and Trap. We will continue to follow over the next few months through these summer releases, but the slowing box office is an important trend to keep an eye on for anyone working in the genre.
Three Film Recommendations
Alright, since we’re talking about mid-tier budget films, this week we’re sharing a few of the favorites with budgets between $10 and $80 million.
Goodfellas (1990)
In 1990, Scorcese’s crime gangster drama cost around $25 million to make, which is equivalent to roughly $50 million today. With the all-star cast of Robert De Niro, Ray Liotta, and Joe Pesci, the film follows Henry Hill as he grows up in the ranks of the mob and tries to climb his way to the top.
Goodfellas is considered a milestone of the crime drama and a staple of any top movie list. Driven by powerhouse performances, the film stands as debatably Scorcese’s best work in his illustrious career. It also includes one of the best single-shot steadicam scenes of all time.
A Few Good Men (1992)
Staying within the 90s here, A Few Good Men cost roughly $40 million to make in 1992, which is equivalent to about $80 million today (just within our range). The courtroom drama starring Tom Cruise, Jack Nicholson, and Demi Moore, follows a lawyer defending two marines charged with the killing of another marine in Guantanamo Bay.
The film is written by Aaron Sorkin and directed by Rob Reiner, two incredible filmmakers who were in the midst of massive success in their careers. It is a pretty standard courtroom drama led by some incredible performances from Nicholson and Cruise, who was at the highest peak of his career.
Although, has Tom peaked? I mean the man’s jumping off cliffs on motorcycles nowadays.
Game Night (2017)
Okay, if you give me a chance to talk about this film, I will always take it.
Game Night was made on roughly a $40 million budget and is probably one of the few examples of commercial comedy success in the past ten years. The film stars Jason Bateman, Rachel McAdams, LaMorne Morris, and others as a group of friends who get together for a murder mystery game night, which quickly goes awry.
The film includes some of the best comedic deliveries in a movie, a hysterical ad-libbed scene from Rachel McAdams, and a great performance from Billy Magnussen. The best part of the film is Jesse Plemons's playing a jealous, lonely neighbor and giving one of the greatest deadpan comedy performances of possibly all time. It is easily one of my personal favorites and one of the most critically lauded comedies of the past two decades.
On Wednesday, in the paid newsletter, we will be taking a look ahead at this year’s Cannes Film Festival…
🎞️ A Look Ahead at Cannes Film Festival
🎬 Other Latest News and Updates from the Industry